I see, thanks for confirming this. I’d interpret that as quite possibly a small percentage of the “suspected” cases were actual cases, or true cases. I’d be very surprised if they used a test with less than 50% certainty of correctly diagnosing the disease. It’d open up massive problems of false negatives, which would be dangerous. Of course assuming it was really 40%, then your arguments hold. But that’d be scary to be honest.

Associate Professor of Epidemiology and Environmental Health at the University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Also in: https://refind.com/arinbasu

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