Why New Zealand’s decision to go into a Nationwide lockdown
… makes sense
Health authorities in NZ have identified a single case of a person in the community today. A person in a North Island town was identified with Covid19 positive, but we do not know as yet if this person was infected with delta variant. Within hours, even with this incomplete information, the Prime Minister and the Director General of Health Services jointly called a press conference, and in the press conference the PM announced that some part of the country will go into a seven-day level 4 lockdown, and the remaining parts of the country will move to a three-day lockdown.
Surprising? Going overboard?
Not quite.
We do not know if the offending strain is one of delta strain, but this is the assumption on which this decision is made. This is a classic assumption in public health referred to as precautionary principle, where even with limited information, action that is useful for protection of public’s health is taken or recommended.
A few other things are also to be considered. First, this virus is airborne. Which tells us that given enough people and poor ventilation, the virus can spread rapidly. So, if you really want to stay free of the infection, do not go to pubs, restaurants, rock concerts, stadia, movies, practically avoid everywhere you can find a crowd.
Second, the virus spreads with a negative binomial pattern where few people spread the virus to many and most people spread the virus to few. This is another interesting feature of the virus, and that being the case, what you really need is to find out who WAS the source from where it started. As of now, authorities do not know that, but they are searching. This is the key to solving this and therefore, it is important that they move fast and move as hard as they can. This is also the reason everyone should continue to use their smartphone app to share location as to where they have been or where they are going. Third, this is also a good time to tighten up on wearing your mask everywhere, and stay safe. Fourth, while the delta variant does spread fast, if you have at least one dose of the vaccine (whatever vaccine it may be), you have a good chance to get protected, even if that is 30% on an average.
So, rather than waiting to see more cases emerge, this policy of going hard and going sooner than later makes total sense.
